Contrary to popular opinion Apple has not taken over the world – well not yet perhaps. Granted – the iPhone is a phenomenon and with the number of apps (sic) now exceeding 100,000 (http://bit.ly/W6w4P) – the other smart phone providers have ingested a considerable amount of exhaust fumes. But the more important story for both business and consumers is going to involve the services that are enabled by those applications and the mobile devices they run on. Infrastructure providers, both internal and external, need to start providing guidance on how to properly bring business efforts to the mobile arena, including line of business applications, marketing and customer support, as well as determining which mobile platforms will be supported. There is a very important distinction between applications and apps and as time evolves the supplier of the former will be in an increasingly strong position. For example, if my organisation supplies a leading business intelligence application to some of the world biggest companies I will sooner, rather than later, have to supply a mobile version of the same that works on every iPhone, Android, Blackberry, etc. that incorporates all the values of my flagship product.

Not only that but the market in smart phones is expecting considerable fragmentation and there will be a multitude of platforms to run on which will make it harder than ever to differentiate categories. Service providers are going to have to get serious about setting rules about what’s allowed on the network and what’s not. Look for issues like application development, security and management to become hot topics as devices targeted at the masses and therefore lacking features critical to business deployment are sneaked onto corporate networks.

Undoubtedly, mobile platforms will consolidate – there are now about 10 different platforms, from Palm, Microsoft, Apple, RIM, Nokia, Samsung, Google and others, vying for the hearts and minds of developers and handset vendors. It is reminiscent of the early days of the PC although do not expect one ring to rule them all – 10 is far too many so expect a lot of consolidation in 2010. Maybe some platforms might not even make it through the year.

We will hit the intersection of mobile and social networks – the integration of new features such as integrated compasses, GPS and fast networks has allowed a new breed of applications to emerge and even Twitter has taken on new life with geo-tagging and location awareness. A new breed of ubiquitous mobile applications will emerge in the new year encompassing all those sexy ‘so-what’ features that nobody can decide what to do with at the moment (e.g. augmented reality applications).

And the final prediction, Microsoft will redouble it’s efforts in mobile and come back with a full force gale. It’s been quiet (too damned quiet) but the velocity of the market, where it can seem sometimes as if change comes along every minute rather than every year, means that it’s still very much anyone’s game. Microsoft understands the importance for all of its business of succeeding in mobile.

I could be wrong, and goodness knows I have been before, but an each way bet on any of the above could return a handsome payout.

Peter Richards   16/12/2009